Micron’s Current Pricing Is Parabolic, but We Expect Cyclicality to Return Long-Term
We see Micron Technology as a strong supplier of memory chips, but we don’t believe the firm holds an economic moat. Micron benefits from large scale, being the fifth-largest chipmaker in the world, but we don’t see enough scale to generate consistent economic profits. Micron holds a third-place market share in dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips and a fifth-place market share in not-and, or NAND, flash chips. We view both the DRAM and NAND markets as highly cyclical, and we expect Micron to thrive in periods of strong demand and pricing but to be vulnerable to downcycles that compress shipments, prices, and profits.
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