J.B. Hunt says it's not yet out of the 'freight recession,' but that there are signs of a rebound

By Bill Peters

Trucking company reports earnings as investors reckon with a 'lower for longer' reality' across the industry, analyst says

Shares of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. fell after hours on Tuesday as the trucking and transportation-services provider reported third-quarter results that missed Wall Street's expectations, amid continued lower shipping demand.

The results follow a roller-coaster for the shipping industry over the past two years, as shipping costs spiked due to supply-chain logjams and then dropped as higher prices for essentials recalibrated consumer demand. Executives at the company, however, signaled they might have reached the bottom.

"To be clear on the overall environment, we are not at a point yet to say we're out of the freight recession," President Shelley Simpson said on J.B. Hunt's (JBHT) earnings call on Tuesday. "But we do feel like we're coming out of it. Or, said differently, directionally, we are seeing signs of things moving in a positive direction."

The company reported net income of $187.4 million, or $1.80 a share, compared with $269.4 million, or $2.57 a share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue fell to $3.16 billion, compared with $3.84 billion in the prior-year quarter.

Analysts polled by FactSet expected J.B. Hunt to report earnings per share of $1.83, on revenue of $3.17 billion.

Shares fell 3% after hours on Tuesday.

J.B. Hunt owns trucks and trailers, and it offers services that link trucking and rail transportation as well as services that match businesses shipping things with companies that ship them.

Port and warehouse backups that started in 2021 allowed transport companies to charge a premium to haul goods. But those prices, and the profit windfall that drove them, gave out the next year. The war in Ukraine initially drove up food prices and rerouted demand toward basics, which then grew more expensive, and away from things typically bought online that need to be shipped.

J.B. Hunt reported results after sometimes-tense labor negotiations at United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) and the major railroad operators, as well as the bankruptcy of trucking company Yellow. Those events have altered the contours of the trucking market and led to speculation over who might benefit.

But analysts say shipping demand remains subdued, as retailers stay cautious on what products they order -- and have shipped to stores -- due to hesitant consumers still navigating higher prices, at least for basics like groceries. The weaker demand for all the other things that the trucking and rail industries ship has left trailers sparse and prices lower.

"In short, truckload is still long capacity and short pricing power into 2024," Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Bascome Majors said in a research note this month.

"Against that backdrop," Majors continued, "we believe management teams and investors are coming to terms with a 'lower for longer' reality and expect 2024 consensus forecasts to fall materially into and out of earnings season."

-Bill Peters

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10-18-23 0835ET

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