The average concert ticket hit $120 last year, but the Live Nation antitrust case may not make it cheaper

Andrew Keshner

Concert prices have increased approximately 34% since 2018, by one count

The U.S. Department of Justice is suing to break up Live Nation Entertainment, the parent company of Ticketmaster, for allegedly cranking up fans' costs by controlling the concert industry. But the antitrust action may not give concertgoers much financial relief, experts say.

Like Mick Jagger said, you can't always get what you want.

"It's time for fans and artists to stop paying the price for Live Nation's monopoly," Attorney General Merrick Garland said at a Thursday press conference announcing an antitrust lawsuit that said fans are put through a wringer of fees that are essentially a "Ticketmaster tax."

"It is time to restore competition and innovation in the entertainment industry," Garland added. "It is time to break up Live Nation-Ticketmaster. The American people are ready for it."

What concertgoers are really ready for is some sort of price relief.

The cost of live shows has been on a sharp upward trajectory in recent years, climbing 34% from an average $90 cost in 2018 to $120 last year, according to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

Of course, $120 is chump change compared with the prices last summer to get even nosebleed seats to see Beyoncé or Taylor Swift, which ran into four and even five figures.

But it's unclear how much the blockbuster case can reduce prices, according to some consumer advocates and music-industry experts. Live Nation and its lawyers also say the case will not reduce prices.

"What we can hope for is more innovation which could then potentially lead us to lower prices," said George Howard, a professor in Berklee College of Music's business and management department.

As a serial entrepreneur in the music industry, Howard knows personally how hard it is to establish ticketing relationships when venues already have long-term deals through Live Nation (LYV).

The antitrust case alleges that Live Nation, through Ticketmaster, controls around 80% of major concert venues' primary ticketing - plus an increasing share of secondary ticket resales.

Read also: When it came to Ticketmaster, Pearl Jam was decades ahead of the Justice Department

"The answer lies with innovation, not through litigation," Howard said. Still, he added, "if litigation is the step getting us to innovation, great."

So much goes into the concert-ticket price, like demand for a certain artist as well as the behind-the-scenes labor and equipment costs that are subject to inflation, said John Breyault, the vice president of public policy at the National Consumers League.

Even if it's tough to pin the pricing impact of a Live Nation break-up, Breyault said, concertgoers may win from Live Nation and Ticketmaster facing more competition in the ticket-buying experience.

"One of the hallmarks of any monopoly is that service quality gets worse," Breyault said. It's easy to find music fans frustrated by Ticketmaster, he said. "Right now, we all live in the shadow of Live Nation-Ticketmaster."

Live Nation Entertainment panned the suit, saying it "won't solve the issues fans care about relating to ticket prices, service fees and access to in-demand shows." "Calling Ticketmaster a monopoly may be a PR win for the DOJ in the short term, but it will lose in court because it ignores the basic economics of live entertainment," the company said.

It noted that "the bulk of service fees go to venues" and also that "competition has steadily eroded Ticketmaster's market share and profit margin."

The antitrust case says Live Nation owns or controls more than 265 North American concert venues, which include 60 of the 100 top amphitheaters.

It's unclear what the case will mean for prices - and when it will wind to a close.

"This litigation will last years," analysts at Capital Alpha Partners said in a Thursday note. Other massive antitrust cases, like ones against Meta (META) and Alphabet's (GOOGL) (GOOG) Google, are moving at a glacial pace, said researchers at the Washington, D.C.-based policy-research firm. "We expect Live Nation to fight every step of the way."

That could stretch into a new presidential administration.

"While we do not comment on specific enforcement matters, President Biden strongly supports fair and robust enforcement of the antitrust laws," White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday.

Even if Donald Trump retakes the White House in the fall election, the case could play on, according to Capital Alpha Partners.

"Our baseline expectation is that a new DOJ would continue on the same path of litigation," the note said. "It is possible that a new DOJ could be more inclined to settle on the margin, but it depends on the strength of the case and the personality of who is in charge at the DOJ."

How have higher prices affected your life and how you think about the U.S. economy? MarketWatch would like to hear from readers about their experiences. You can write to us at readerstories@marketwatch.com. A reporter may be in touch to learn more.

-Andrew Keshner

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05-24-24 1014ET

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