Tesla is reporting quarterly sales soon. Investors are bracing for lower numbers.

By Claudia Assis

Consensus calls for the delivery of 436,000 EVs in second quarter

Tesla Inc. is likely to report deliveries - its proxy for sales - this week, and Wall Street expects that the EV maker will have sold fewer cars than in the same period last year.

Tesla (TSLA) does not set a firm date for its production and deliveries report, but it usually comes to light a few days after the end of the quarter. At that time, it will also set the date of its quarterly earnings report, likely two weeks following.

Unlike several other U.S. automakers, the EV maker also reports quarterly numbers, not monthly data, and it does not break them down by country or region.

For the second quarter, analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report the delivery of 436,000 vehicles, mostly of cheaper Model 3 sedans and Model Y compact SUVs. In the second quarter of 2023, the company sold 466,000 vehicles.

Analysts at RBC last week said they pored over app downloads and registration data in the U.S. and China as well as in Europe, and that they are pointing to even lower sales than consensus.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said in a note Monday that he expects the delivery numbers to arrive early on Tuesday. That will round up a "very bumpy" first half of the year for the company due to softer EV demand for Tesla and other EV makers.

"However, we believe the China growth piece for Tesla is slowly turning around and saw a 'mini rebound'" in the quarter, helping Tesla come close to consensus, Ives said.

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"Whisper numbers are lower in the [415,000 to 420,000] range as the Street's core focus looking forward is a [second-half] unit recovery, price stabilization, China growth, and a historic Robotaxi Day" on Aug. 8, the analyst said.

Shares of Tesla have declined 15% so far this year, contrasting with gains of around 15% for the S&P 500 index SPX.

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-Claudia Assis

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07-01-24 1509ET

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